Ever wonder how that big election will turn out? Or who will be the next big American idol star?
With the power of crowd sourcing, an innovative website has created an online predictions market that predicts events with surprising accuracy.
A early innovator of web 2.0 ideals, 'intrade.com' supplies questions to large crowds to predict the outcome of many events ranging from presidential elections to climate changes. This is all powered by a market style process where a set of 'shares' for a event are issued and members bid real money on the likelihood of the event occurring.
If the crowd believes the event will occur people will pay more money for a share of the stock and if the event seems unlikely to occur people will pay less for a share of the event. The value of a share is between 0 and 100, where 0 is completely unlikely and 100 is completely certain.
An interesting example was during the American Elections for President Obama, where intrade successfully predicted a victory for Obama over Mccain over the course of the the 2007-2008 campaign.
So next time you just gotta know...check it at intrade
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